With the new wave of violence in Israel, the recent recovery movement is quickly over. "Safe havens" are in demand. And high interest rates are weighing on the markets anyway.
9 October 2023. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Friday's unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report didn't do much to hurt the stock markets, but now there's a lot of concern about Hamas' attack on Israel. "The sudden outbreak of violence in the Middle East is throwing a wrench into the recent stock market rally," notes IG's Christian Henke. Above all, the fear of an interruption in the supply of crude oil from Iran is going around. For the DAX, a new test of the psychological mark at 15,000 points is now possible.
The DAX had gone out of trading on Friday evening at just under 15,230 points. On Monday morning, it is x points. The oil price has risen significantly to a peak of 89 U.S. dollars for a barrel of North Sea Brent. "Safe havens" such as gold or Swiss franc also increase.
Friday's unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report didn't do much to hurt the stock markets, but now there's a lot of concern about Hamas' attack on Israel. "The sudden outbreak of violence in the Middle East is throwing a wrench into the recent stock market rally," notes IG's Christian Henke. Above all, the fear of an interruption in the supply of crude oil from Iran is going around. For the DAX, a new test of the psychological mark at 15,000 points is now possible.
The DAX had gone out of trading on Friday evening at just under 15,230 points. On Monday morning, it is x points. The oil price has risen significantly to a peak of 89 U.S. dollars for a barrel of North Sea Brent. "Safe havens" such as gold or Swiss franc also increase.
Bottom formation, but no trend reversal
Chart-wise, it looks like a bottoming out, as technical analyst Christoph Geyer explains. "The DAX is admittedly still in a downward trend that has been in place since August, and the next support is in the 14,500-point range." However, despite all the concern, the positive must also be highlighted, he said. "In addition to the seasonal strength, the indicators are also either facing buy signals or have already generated them." He added that the strength on Friday also points to a bottoming out. "Whether it is already enough for a trend reversal is at least questionable at the moment."
Geyer
On the data side, the current inflation figures from the U.S. are likely to be the highlight of this week. In addition, the U.S. reporting season for the third quarter starts. Among others, the banks Citigroup, Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan open their books.
Important economic and business dates of the week
Monday, October 9
USA: Columbus Day. Bond markets remain closed.
Wednesday, October 11
8:00 p.m. U.S.: Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting of 19/20.09. The market is hoping for information on the further action of the central bankers.
Thursday, October 12
1:30 p.m. Eurozone: minutes of the ECB meeting of 14.09. The summary will reflect a controversial discussion, according to DekaBank. Such disagreement over the longer-term inflation outlook would argue for monetary policy to remain unchanged for an extended period.
2:30 p.m. U.S.: September Consumer Prices. According to Commerzbank, U.S. consumer prices will not provide a clear easing of the situation, but will also not provide grounds for renewed inflation concerns. The general inflation rate and also the core rate are each expected to rise by 0.3 percent compared with the previous month, which would result in 3.6 percent and 4.1 percent year-on-year respectively.
von: Anna-Maria Borse, 9. Oktober 2023, © Deutsche Börse AG
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and economics editor specializing in financial markets/stock markets and economic topics.
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Borse