Super Micro, Coinbase, ASML - certificate trading is currently focusing on companies that otherwise do not play a major role. The many bearish positions on the DAX are striking, as traders reported.
21 March 2024 FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Tech and defense stocks, gold and cryptos are what is currently moving certificate trading. According to Patrick Kesselhut from Société Générale, although the DAX is still the most important underlying in terms of all certificates, it has been displaced from the top positions in leveraged products by gold and stocks such as Nvidia, Super Micro, ARM Holding and Rheinmetall. The focus of certificate trading at Baader Bank is on technology and defense stocks, as Simon Görich reports. For Markus Königer from ICF Bank, cryptocurrencies are particularly striking: "They have hit the ground running again."
The most popular underlyings at ICF in the past four weeks were DAX, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, gold, Super Micro, Rheinmetall, oil, Infineon and Coinbase. at Société Générale DAX, Nasdaq, Nvidia, gold, Dow Jones, Rheinmetall, oil and ASML. "Nvidia is once again higher," notes Kesselhut.
"Most people are betting on a falling DAX"
In the segment of investment products on large indices, Société Générale focuses a lot on discount and bonus certificates on the Nasdaq, EuroStoxx or DAX. One example: a capped bonus certificate on the EuroStoxx (DE000SU2H3Q5). In the case of leverage products on the DAX & Co. it is clear that many are distrustful of the bull market. According to Kesselhut, bearish positions on the DAX (DE000SV6MNV3, DE000SV7RR22) and Nasdaq clearly dominate. "Most of the bets are on a falling DAX," Königer also notes, for example on open-end knock-out puts (DE000TT7KB78, DE000HS4XDE0).
Again and again Nvidia, but also Rheinmetall and Co.
Baader Bank's individual stocks are dominated by tech stocks such as Nvidia and Netflix. "However, there is also a lot going on in defense stocks such as Rheinmetall, Safran and Leonardo - in line with the times." While Rheinmetall has long been on ICF's list of the most popular individual stocks, Super Micro and Coinbase are new additions. The US technology infrastructure company Super Micro is one of the big winners of the AI boom, although it has recently fallen. Meanwhile, crypto exchange operator Coinbase is benefiting from the crypto boom.
Königer reports brisk turnover in discount certificates on Airbus (DE000DJ7C982), Schneider Electric (DE000DJ7ZYQ3), Infineon (DE000DW8PD11) and LVMH (DE000DJ8Z7H2). "This is probably due to the good sideways yield." He also sees many leveraged products on Super Micro, Coinbase and also Nvidia - with almost exclusively bullish positioning. The situation is similar at Société Générale: factor long warrants on Nvidia with leverage of 6 (<factor long warrant>) or 10 are popular.
Gold: many fans and a new all-time high
Gold is also a big topic. After all, the price of the troy ounce has just climbed above USD 2,200 - for the first time ever. The trigger is the prospect of falling interest rates, which would make gold more interesting again as an interest-free investment category. Kesselhut sees long positions in particular. A factor long warrant with leverage 15 (DE000SQ0UQL0), for example, is seeing a lot of turnover. ICF reports high turnover with open-end knock-out calls on gold (DE000TR4P496), but also with mini future calls (DE000PX1LWU0).
Crypto basket with the strongest trending currencies impresses
Cryptocurrencies are currently very volatile. Bitcoin first climbed to a new all-time high of USD 73,559 last week, before heading south to almost USD 60,000 yesterday (Wednesday). On Thursday morning, Bitcoin was back at around USD 67,000.
The certificate with the highest turnover at ICF in the past four weeks was therefore a crypto tracker, namely the crypto basket certificate Tracker Certificate on Der Aktionär Krypto TSI (CH1171791515). This certificate automatically invests in the ten cryptos with the strongest trends from a pool of cryptocurrencies according to fixed rules. Despite recent price losses, the price has still more than doubled since last fall.
Also heavily traded: Solana trackers from Leonteq Securities (CH0596616612) or Valour (CH1114178838) as well as Ethereum (CH0596612348) and Chainlink certificates (CH0596612421) from Leonteq.
By Anna-Maria Borse, March 21, 2024 © Deutsche Börse AG
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in the financial market/stock exchange and economic topics.
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