Doubling or even tripling - the share price performance of Tesla and Nvidia is going too far for some. They are betting on falling prices. The Siemens Energy crash, on the other hand, is considered by most to be exaggerated. Gold and oil are also expected to rise.
13 July 2023, FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The strong increase on the stock market in the first half of the year has made some people skeptical. This applies once again with regard to many tech stocks, which have risen even more than the average. "We see a striking number of short positions, in products on the DAX, but also on individual stocks such as Nvidia (<DE000SV6R6S6>)," explains Patrick Kesselhut of Société Générale. Markus Königer of ICF Bank also sees positioning on falling prices, but also on rising ones, both on the DAX, Nasdaq and S&P 500 and on addresses such as Nvidia and Tesla.
The DAX and S&P 500 have risen by around 16 percent in the first half of the year, and the Nasdaq 100 by as much as 39 percent. After reaching a new all-time high of almost 16,428 points and then falling to 15,600 points, the DAX is back at 16,021 points on Thursday morning.
Thereby, it is currently rather leisurely in certificate trading. "Perhaps people are waiting for the U.S. reporting season that starts at the end of the week," says Königer. Kesselhut also speaks of a quiet trading activity. "Volatility continues to be very low." The most popular underlyings in the past four weeks at ICF Bank were DAX, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, gold, Tesla, oil, Nvidia and Siemens Energy, and at Société Générale DAX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, gold, oil, Tesla, euro/US dollar and Deutsche Bank.
"Hardly anyone wants to commit themselves for longer".
Discount certificates remain in demand in investment product trading. "Short maturities are in demand. Hardly anyone wants to commit themselves for longer at the moment," notes Kesselhut, referring to a discount certificate on the DAX with a cap at 16,200 points and maturity on July 20 (<DE000SN2UTX8>).
According to Kesselhut, leveraged products on major indices are dominated by positions on falling prices, for example with a factor short warrant with leverage 10 (DE000SQ4DB29) or an open-end knock-out put (<DE000SF3WZ48>). The Nasdaq is also attracting a lot of attention. At ICF, open-end knock-out calls with a strike price at around 14,116 points (<DE000DJ1YXW9>) and puts with a strike price at around 15,718 points (<DE000HG0KML5>) show high turnover.
"Sideways yields convincing"
Discount certificates are also in demand as far as individual stocks are concerned. "Many of them promise a good sideways yield," notes Königer. Discounters on Airbus, Infineon, LVMH or Schneider Electric are popular, for example. Kesselhut names Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta as sought-after underlyings. Simon Görich of Baader Bank also sees interest in discount certificates on Shell (DE000SQ6L5P0). "There, a possible sideways yield of over 10 percent seems to have convinced one or the other investor."
Tesla and Nvidia in focus
Leveraged products on individual stocks also revolve around tech stocks. "Products on high-tech and chip stocks in particular are an interesting playground for investors," says Görich, describing the situation. He cites call warrants on AMD (DE000KG56UE3) and open-end knock-out calls on Apple. At ICF, the focus is on Tesla and Nvidia. Regarding Tesla - the share price has more than doubled since the beginning of the year - it is about call warrants (<DE000PD98UQ5>) or factor short warrants (DE000PE3TSS4), positioning in both directions, according to Königer.
Also both sides would be played in the case of Nvidia, the U.S. chip company, which has benefited as strongly as probably no other from the AI hype of recent months. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has tripled, the market capitalization has climbed above one trillion US dollars. Mini future puts (<DE000DJ1W322>) and open-end knock-out calls (DE000PN30MQ4) are showing high turnover. Regarding Microsoft, confidence prevails above all, as the ICF figures show: Call warrants (<DE000TT8V295>), for example, are popular.
Siemens Energy: Too much punishment?
Also in focus: Siemens Energy. In June, the DAX share price fell from 23 to 14 euros within a short period of time. Due to ongoing quality problems at the wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa, Siemens Energy had reduced its forecast for fiscal 2022/23. However, most probably consider the share price drop to be exaggerated: Bullish positioning dominates at ICF, for example with Relax Express certificates (<DE000PF99UC8>) and open-end knock-out calls (<DE000PE4W6G8>).
"Clearly bet on rising prices in oil"
Certificates on gold are also popular, Görich notes, such as tracker certificates (DE000DB0SEX9) and open-end knock-out calls (DE000SQ3VU74). The gold price had risen to 2,059 U.S. dollars an ounce at the beginning of May, but then fell to around 1,900 U.S. dollars. Currently it is 1,961 U.S. dollars. At ICF, bullish positions predominate, for example with open-end knock-out calls (<DE000HG67HJ2>).
Always popular: oil certificates. "These have a broad, stable following. You always see interest here," reports Kesselhut. The most sought-after products, he says, are mini futures calls and open-end knock-out calls, often on Brent Crude (DE000SQ49SF1, <DE000SV3PC58>). "There is a clear bet on rising prices in oil." Since early May, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent had hovered around $75, and this week it climbed above $80 for the first time since April.
Cryptos: More interest again
There is more going on in crypto certificates again, as Königer reports. The tracker product on Der Aktionär Krypto TSI (CH1171791515) is even the highest-turnover product at ICF. "It's mostly buying, investors are positioning themselves again." The main cryptocurrency bitcoin had briefly risen above $31,000 in early July, and is currently $30,304, up 83 percent since the beginning of the year. However, the all-time high in November 2021 was nearly $69,000.
by: Anna-Maria Borse, 13 July, 2023, © Deutsche Börse
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and economics editor specializing in financial markets/stock markets and economic topics.
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