Commodities: Profit-taking after all-time highs

The rally in precious metals continued in the first half of October. However, new records were followed by a correction. Does this mean the boom is over?

30 October 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Precious metals continued to dominate commodity markets in October. Gold and silver initially rose to new record highs before profit-taking set in during the second half of the month. The price of gold climbed to a high of US$4,381 per troy ounce, but currently stands at just US$3,974. Silver marked a new all-time high of $54.47 and is now trading at $47.78.

In this environment, inflows into physically backed gold and silver ETCs have once again risen significantly overall, as figures from WisdomTree show. “Precious metals have continued to dominate commodity flows in recent weeks,” explains Mobeen Tahir. “Central banks' diversification away from the US dollar and the return of positive inflows into exchange-traded products reinforced a robust but moderate investment environment.”

Changing factors influencing the price of gold

Thu Lan Nguyen of Commerzbank notes that the key drivers of gold price developments have changed in recent years. While in the past these could be explained quite well by the forecast real US yield, demand for a safe haven due to economic and geopolitical concerns is now the main driver of the gold price.

At the same time, the commodity analyst issues a warning: the fact that gold is not subject to government or central bank control and is therefore not subject to default risk does not mean that gold is completely risk-free. “In the event of a crash, there would be no government authority to step in to stabilize the price.” This is particularly important to consider, she says, as the gold rally can increasingly be viewed as exaggerated. However, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US politics and the (as yet) unforeseeable end to the war in Ukraine, the expert does not expect the current correction to continue for much longer.

Technical support within reach

The recent declines were triggered by news of a looming trade agreement between the US and China. The price decline was accompanied by strong outflows from gold ETCs. The big question now is whether this is a sustained trend reversal or whether the rally will resume shortly. In a recent analysis, strategists at Wellenreiter Invest emphasize that the 50-day lines form an important technical support level. For gold, this moving average is currently around $3,820, and for silver, it is $44.60.
The editors cite the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (“XAU”), which tracks the performance of international gold and silver producers' shares, as an important indicator. It has already reached its 50-day average. “The index will show market participants the extent to which there is momentum for a resumption of the rise in precious metals. Normally, it should start to rise again.”
 

Further leverage instruments are offered by issuers of structured securities. David Hartmann from Vontobel also reports strong interest in gold and silver certificates. Long products clearly predominate and account for the majority of purchases. The issuer's most traded products are two relatively highly leveraged open-end turbo warrants on gold (DE000VH4SN47 and DE000VH38Y12) and a classic call on silver (DE000VH4Q8J7).

By Thomas Koch, 30 October 2025 © Deutsche Börse AG