The fact that the mood on the stock market has turned is also noticeable in certificate trading. Most are now betting on further price rises. Also on the agenda: Bayer and Siemens Energy.
30 November 2023. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The rally on the stock market is also stimulating certificate trading. "Turnover has increased compared to previous months," reports Markus Königer, certificate trader at ICF Bank. Patrick Kesselhut from Société Générale also sees shifts in the most popular products: "The high level of interest in certificates on US Treasury bond futures is striking."
According to Kesselhut, however, the DAX was - as always - the underlying with the highest turnover in the past four weeks. It was followed by the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, gold, US Treasury bond futures, Nvidia, Tesla, Siemens Energy and Bayer. Königer names the DAX, Nasdaq, Bayer, oil, Dow Jones, gold, Siemens Energy and Nvidia as the most sought-after underlyings. Simon Görich from Baader Bank also sees the DAX at the top: "Despite the unchanged data situation - Ukraine, energy, recession worries, quasi-bounced 60 billion euro check - the situation on the market seems to be brightening somewhat."
Kesselhut is currently observing more tracker and discount certificates among investment products - and fewer bonus certificates, for example on the DAX, Nasdaq or Euro Stoxx. "Overall, long positions are now being favored again."
According to Görich, trading products on the DAX are particularly popular. The highest turnover in DAX certificates at ICF is also attributable to leverage products, such as mini future puts (<DE000DV11UB8>) or open-end knock-out calls (DE000PZ0ZQS6, DE000PZ0WL41) and puts. The situation is similar for the Nasdaq 100 with open-end knock-out puts (<DE000TT99C48>) and calls (DE000PN3UXN2) as well as put warrants (<DE000PH70QS9>).
Bayer fell too low?
But products on individual stocks are also doing well. The high level of attention paid to Bayer and Siemens Energy is striking. The fall in Bayer's share price following the suspension of trials for a promising drug has evidently gone too far for many. Bullish positions predominate, for example with open-end knock-out calls, as Königer notes. The mood is more mixed when it comes to the weakening Siemens Energy. Bearish products such as an open-end knock-out put (<DE000HS02Z00>) dominate. With regard to tech stocks such as Nvidia or Microsoft, optimism clearly prevails, with high turnover of call warrants (DE000HG80ZV2, DE000HG2DKG0) and open-end knock-out calls (DE000HG9VEH8) for Nvidia, for example.
Discount certificates on names such as Airbus (DE000DW35N94) or Schneider Electric (<DE000DV8HS40>) remain popular, Königer adds. "You can achieve attractive sideways returns." According to Görich, the news of a change of management at LVMH has sparked interest in discounters on the luxury goods manufacturer (DE000SV2L1G2). The improved conditions at Deutsche Bank had also ensured good turnover in a memory express certificate with airbag on the bank (DE000DK089P5). This product type offers the chance of interest payments and early redemption depending on the share price performance. In addition, the airbag mechanism provides a buffer at maturity.
Görich
Speculating on interest rate cuts in the USA
But it's not all about shares. Another major topic is the development of interest rates. Investors at Société Générale are betting on the interest rate turnaround with the Best Unlimited Turbo warrant on T-Bond Future (DE000SQ07RA2), an open-end knock-out call. "It is interesting that the bet is on US interest rates and not on German interest rates with the Euro-Bund future," says Kesselhut.
Hope for Bitcoin ETF - crypto products in demand again
Crypto certificates are also much busier again. According to Königer, the tracker certificate on Der Aktionär Krypto TSI (CH1171791515) is actually the best-selling product of the past four weeks. Also heavily traded: the tracker certificate on Börse Online Best of Krypto (CH1171793321). "The hope that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the USA is probably making itself felt." Bitcoin is now back above USD 37,000, compared with less than half that price at the start of the year.
Confidence in gold
The development of the gold price and the US dollar are also receiving a lot of attention. After all, a troy ounce of gold now costs USD 2,041 again, almost as much as at the all-time high in summer 2020. Many investors are apparently expecting prices to rise even further, with Königer reporting high turnover in open-end knock-out calls (DE000TR4P496, DE000HG6TL62) and Kesselhut in mini future calls (DE000SW020Z8). "Overall, investors prefer to go long." Königer registered positioning in both directions in the euro/US dollar currency pair. The euro rose above 1.10 US dollars this week - its highest level since August.
by Anna-Maria Borse, 30 November 2023 © Deutsche Börse AG
Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and economics editor specializing in financial markets/stock markets and economic topics.
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