Weekly outlook: Skeptical analysts

“Stock markets remain susceptible to setbacks”

However, most analysts view this recovery with a certain degree of skepticism anyway. “The uncertainty on the international financial markets may have eased recently, but the cow is far from off the ice,” warned DZ Bank, for example, even before the holidays. The biggest risk is that no significant progress is made in the customs negotiations over the next few weeks. “Then the representatives in Brussels will probably have little choice but to initiate their own countermeasures”. From an equity market perspective, the strategists believe that this would mean a “further escalation” and result in “further significant price losses”. Our colleagues at LBBW also come to the conclusion that the stock markets remain vulnerable to setbacks. “It would be an illusion to believe that the stock markets have already found a new equilibrium”. The analysts are sticking to their assessment “that the downward movement of the DAX has not yet passed its cyclical low”.

“No reason to panic”

Helaba's strategists are at least giving investors a little hope. For example, unlike their US counterparts, local dividend stocks have now “returned to the fair price range”, which gives the European equity market an advantage, at least in relative terms. Although the indices in the eurozone could not escape a pronounced bear market in the US, the DAX has “emerged stronger from every crisis” so far. “Even if the negative case were to escalate further, investors can bet that the price losses will be made up and shares will trade higher in the medium term”. For long-term investors, there is therefore no reason to panic even in the event of an unfavorable development in the customs dispute. However, a well-diversified portfolio is important.

“Massive technical hurdles”

According to experts, the technical picture on the German stock market has recently improved somewhat due to the stabilization that has taken place, without being able to generate new buy signals. Marcel Mußler from Mußler Briefe expects a “quite intense but relatively directionless sideways market” after Easter. Now that the important support levels have held, the experienced chart technician believes that a “march to the very top” is possible in the near future. Before this happens, however, he believes that the DAX and the STOXX indices still face “massive technical hurdles”, for which Mußler has great respect. For the DAX, there is the “pullback to the August trend”, which runs at 21,800 points this week, and the “horizontal tear-off line at 22,226/58 points”. Over the next few weeks, these two hurdles will continue to merge to form a zone and then a resistance cross that will be difficult to overcome.

Highlight of the US reporting season

In addition to the tariff conflict, the focus in the coming days will also be on the corporate reporting season. According to Helaba's calculations, 76% of the 45 S&P 500 companies reported exceeded expectations. According to Dean, the next two weeks in the USA are “by far the most important” because companies with over 60 percent of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 present their quarterly figures during this phase. However, much more important than the “probably mostly passable figures for the first quarter” are the outlooks and information on the effects of the new US import tariffs on supply chains, pricing, margins and investments. Tesla (Tuesday) and Alphabet (Thursday), for example, will be exciting, while in Europe SAP will open its books this evening following the disappointments at the two heavyweights LVMH and ASML.

Important economic and business events of the week

Tuesday, 22. April

USA: several speeches by Fed members (including Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson)

Wednesday, 23. April

10:00 a.m. Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Indices. After an “arduous upward trend” in recent months, Deka believes that the eurozone is now facing a setback due to US trade policy. The uncertainty caused by the rapidly changing situation regarding US tariffs is leaving its mark on companies, especially in the already weak industrial sector. Strategists therefore expect a decline in the preliminary purchasing managers' indices for April.

80:00 p.m. USA: Beige Book.

Thursday, 24. April

10.00 a.m. Germany: ifo-Index. After the ZEW climate in April fell back to the level of fall 2022 (peak of energy concerns), the ifo index will also “deteriorate decisively” according to Deka economists. However, the reaction of companies is not expected to be as abrupt as that of financial market analysts. The consensus forecast for the business climate is 85.4 after 86.7 points in the previous month.

02.30 p.m. USA: New orders for durable goods. The US economists at Deutsche Bank expect growth of 0.5 percent compared to the previous month, after a plus of 1.0 percent in February. The strategists are thus significantly more pessimistic than the consensus estimate of another +1.0%.

Friday, 25. April

No relevant data releases

By Thomas Koch © 22. April 2025, Deutsche Börse AG