08/09/25 09:22:13

Weekly outlook: “Stock markets in consolidation”

So far, September has been typical – with losses. A major recovery is not expected this week, but rather a lot of turmoil. This is because important events are coming up, including the vote of confidence in France, the ECB meeting, and the latest US inflation figures.

8 September, 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). At the start of the new week, the focus is not solely on central banks, tariffs, and the war in Ukraine. “Today, financial market players will be turning their attention to Paris,” reports Helaba analyst Ralf Umlauf. That is where the confidence vote is taking place today, with which Prime Minister François Bayrou hopes to push ahead with his austerity policy. “A positive outcome is anything but certain,” notes Umlauf. The nervousness had already been reflected in significantly higher risk premiums for French government bonds and losses in France's CAC40 stock index.

According to Martin Hartmann of Commerzbank, the stock markets are currently in a period of consolidation that is likely to last for several more weeks. “Political trends such as the impending collapse of the government in France are currently slowing down the stock markets, while speculation about US interest rate cuts is supporting the markets.”

Interest rate cut expected for the US, but not for the eurozone

Friday's US labor market report was weak. “Job creation in the US economy has almost come to a standstill,” explains Matthias Schell of LBBW. “The data should have dispelled any remaining doubts that the US Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate on 17 September.” 

On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,746 points, up from 23,597 at the close of trading on Friday. In the US, the S&P 500 initially rose to a new all-time high on Friday, but then closed weaker. The market firmly expects the ECB to hold steady when it announces its interest rate decision on Thursday this week. 

Will things only improve again in October?

Birgit Henseler from DZ Bank points to the unfavorable season – after all, August and September have been among the weaker months for the DAX on average since 2000. “However, the picture changes significantly from October onwards. Historically, the DAX has gained an average of 2.3 percent in October and 2.5 percent in November,” she explains. This heralds the start of the year-end rally, which usually continues into December. However, it remains to be seen whether market participants will develop further confidence in the final quarter of 2025, given the already very positive sentiment on global stock markets. 

“Strong DAX reporting season”

Meanwhile, DekaBank has raised its DAX forecasts and now expects 25,000 points in six months and 26,000 points in twelve months, unchanged. According to Joachim Schallmayer, the DAX reporting season for the second quarter was ultimately strong after a difficult start. “Companies successfully defied the pressures of tariffs and the strength of the euro,” he notes. For the third quarter, the consensus currently expects earnings growth of 16 percent compared to the same quarter last year, with all sectors making a positive contribution. 

Important economic and business dates

Monday, 8 September

France: Prime Minister Bayrou calls a vote of confidence. 

Tuesday, 9 September

440 years of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange

On 9 September Frankfurt merchants meet for the first time to set uniform exchange rates – their meeting is considered the birth of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial production/exports for July. According to Carsten Brzeski of ING, the zigzag course continues with extensive data corrections and, at least for the time being, a recovery in industrial production in July. “It is still too early to assess how much of this increase is due to further pull-forward effects in the US and how much is due to a turnaround in inventorying,” he explains. 

Thursday, 11 September

2:15 p.m. Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. According to DekaBank, the central bank will leave the door open for further easing in its accompanying communication, but at the same time hint at high hurdles.

2:30 p.m. US: August consumer prices. The debate about the inflationary effects of tariffs is being fueled by US consumer prices for August, as Commerzbank explains. Inflationary pressure has probably increased, but only slowly.

By Anna-Maria Borse, 8 September 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG

Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.

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