Although the DAX has performed comparatively well for long stretches since our last sentiment survey, there was still a significant price decline at the end. Not least because of further heightened fears of recession and inflation, but possibly also because of fears that the US Federal Reserve would overly tighten its monetary policy, the mood among private investors has now clearly deteriorated again for the first time in a long time. However, Joachim Goldberg warns against automatically reading a buy signal from the relatively poor mood. Because the sentiment is bearish for the behavioral economist, but not bearish enough.
Although the DAX has performed comparatively well for long stretches since our last sentiment survey, there was still a significant price decline at the end. Not least because of further heightened fears of recession and inflation, but possibly also because of fears that the US Federal Reserve would overly tighten its monetary policy, the mood among private investors has now clearly deteriorated again for the first time in a long time. However, Joachim Goldberg warns against automatically reading a buy signal from the relatively poor mood. Because the sentiment is bearish for the behavioral economist, but not bearish enough.
6 April 2022. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Measured against the negative scenarios and news that have not only dominated the international financial markets since our last sentiment survey, the DAX has done surprisingly well, at least until yesterday. Because if you take the threat of sanctions spiraling because of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the associated fears of recession and inflation as a stock market trader seriously, you could well have expected worse for the DAX. The fact that there was a weekly loss of 2.9 percent at the time of today's survey is probably mainly due to a speech by Lael Brainard. Yesterday, the vice-chairman-elect of the US Federal Reserve – actually known as the so-called interest dove – gave financial market participants the impression that they may have underestimated the pace of monetary tightening expected by the Fed.
In the meantime, the mood among the institutional investors we surveyed with a medium-term trading horizon has deteriorated further. Because our Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index fell for the fourth time in a row - this time by 6 points - to a new level of -29. Around 80 percent of the increase in the bear camp is fed by formerly neutral players who may have used the comparatively cheap DAX levels to sell in the past few days. As expected, there was no profit-taking on the part of the bear camp.
Private investors react
Now, for the first time in weeks, a clearer reaction has also been observed among private investors. Our Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index fell by 18 points in this panel to a new level and at the same time the lowest level this year of -7. The fact that many of the once remarkably steadfast bulls have now thrown in the towel is shown by the fact that their group has shrunk by 12 percentage points – incidentally, the other camps each benefit from this departure to the same extent.
With today's survey, the wide gap between private and institutional investors has shrunk significantly. How bad the mood is now, especially among institutional investors, becomes clear when looking at the sentiment index from a perspective of three and six months. You have to go back to April 2020, the low mood during the Corona crisis, to find even worse values than today. In other words, although the mood is bad, it is not yet at a level where one could speak of extreme fear among investors.
No mood automatism
This gives rise to two aspects. On the one hand, at least some of the currently pessimistic players at a lower level could be willing to offer the DAX at least temporary support through buybacks. At the moment, however, it must be taken into account that such demand may be countered by stronger long-term capital outflows (also from abroad) - a weak euro would be an indication of such flows. In short: the weak sentiment at the moment should not automatically be seen as a positive sign for the DAX, even if our regular readers would normally expect this.
On the other hand, the number of those who could quickly cover their short positions or hedges in the event of a positive market surprise – which is currently difficult to imagine – has increased. However, these players would only come under real pressure to act (i.e. possibly in the form of a short squeeze) if the DAX managed to overcome the level of 14,750/14,800 points.
6 April 2022, © Goldberg & Goldberg für boerse-frankfurt.de
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Bullish | Bearish | Neutral | |
total | 25% | 54% | 21% |
compared to last survey | -1% | +5% | -4% |
DAX (change from previous survey): 14,270 (-430 points)
Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index Institutional Investors: -29 points (last survey: -6 points)
Bullish | Bearish | Neutral | |
Total | 33% | 40% | 27% |
ggü. letzter Erhebung | -12% | +6% | +6% |
DAX (change from previous survey): 14,270 (-430 points)
Börse Frankfurt Sentiment-Index private investors: -7 points (last survey: -18 points)
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