Weekly outlook: “We continue to expect a good reporting season”

Weakening US regional banks, rare earth disputes, the crisis in France – none of this is currently having much impact on the stock market. Prices are rising again, and the price of gold, the “crisis currency,” is falling. Many are expecting a good reporting season.
 

October 20, 2025. FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Concerns about loan defaults at US regional banks did not dampen the mood on the stock markets for long. The DAX is clearly on the rise again at the start of the week. The US markets had already recovered on Friday.

Last Thursday, two smaller US regional banks reported possible credit fraud in connection with distressed real estate funds. “This brings back bad memories of spring 2023,” notes Jochen Stanzl of the trading firm CMC Markets. At that time, the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank dragged down markets worldwide.

S&P also gives France the thumbs down

The dispute over rare earths also remains unresolved. China had announced stricter licensing procedures for the export of these important metals, prompting US President Trump to threaten China with additional punitive tariffs of 100 percent. There is also bad news from Europe: the rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded France's credit rating from “AA-” to “A+”. This means that the country has now lost its double-A rating from two of the three major rating agencies.

At the moment, however, the concerns seem to have evaporated. On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 24,103 points after closing at only 23,831 points on Friday. Last week, the price of gold reached a new all-time high of US$4,363, but now it is only US$4,234 per troy ounce.

“Good figures, especially from the US”

According to Andreas Wex from Commerzbank, a lot now depends on developments at US regional banks. “The tariff dispute is also likely to cause some movement, and talks about negotiations in the Ukraine war are likely to affect European markets in particular,” he adds. In his opinion, the third-quarter reporting season has been positive so far. “The chances are good that this will remain the case, as investor expectations are quite low,” he adds.

“The start of the reporting season has been successful on both sides of the Atlantic,” agrees Ulrich Kater of DekaBank. The major US banks have mostly exceeded forecasts, as have the two European index heavyweights ASML and LVMH. “We continue to expect a good reporting season, especially for the US,” he explains.

Technology: “Room for further price losses”

However, the chart does not look good, as Ralf Umlauf from Helaba notes. "The technical outlook has clouded significantly. The indicators are unanimously pointing to sell and/or heading south,“ he explains. There is now room for further price losses, initially to the September low of 23,285 points, and below that to the June low of 23,052 points. ”It remains to be seen whether the moving averages can be regained," he says.

Many quarterly reports – and finally US consumer prices

This week, 81 companies from the Stoxx Europe 600 are presenting their figures, as reported by Deutsche Bank, including UniCredit, SAP, MTU Aero Engines, Sanofi, and Porsche. Ninety-two companies from the S&P 500 reported, including Coca-Cola, 3M, General Motors, Tesla, and Intel.

However, there is hardly any economic data from the US this week, as the government shutdown continues. One exception: US consumer prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for consumer prices, had recalled some employees, as Commerzbank reports. This means that the September consumer price figures, which were actually scheduled for October 15, could be published on Friday.

Important economic and financial data

Monday, October 20

Initial public offering of naval shipbuilder TKMS, a spin-off from Thyssenkrupp.
Shares in the marine division opened trading at €60 this morning and are already trading at just under €90 after only a few hours of trading.

4:00 a.m. China: Third quarter GDP. According to official figures, China's economy grew by 4.8 percent year-on-year, as reported by LBBW. This represents a slowdown compared to the 5.2 percent growth recorded in the second quarter. Nevertheless, economic momentum is holding up better than expected in the spring, given the ongoing US tariff risks.  

4:00 a.m. China: Retail sales/industrial production in September. According to LBBW, retail sales recorded their lowest increase since the beginning of the year in September, at 3 percent. Industrial production, on the other hand, remained robust. 

Wednesday, October 22

8:00 a.m. United Kingdom: Consumer prices for September. According to DekaBank, inflation reached its peak for this year in September at 4 percent. Among other factors, inflation is being driven by rising food prices. 

Friday, October 25

10:00 a.m. Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Index for October. According to DekaBank, European industry in particular is only very slowly emerging from its deep crisis. Service providers, on the other hand, contributed to the economic recovery. This development is likely to be reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Indices for October.

2:30 p.m. USA: Consumer prices for September. According to Deutsche Bank, the annual inflation rate is expected to rise from 2.9 to 3.1 percent. The core rate, which excludes volatile components, is expected to remain at 3.1 percent.