17/06/25 11:36:23

ETFs: The clear picture is missing

Purchases, yes, but also sales—and that for European, US, and global stocks. Only one thing remains clear: defense ETFs are popular. And, more recently, oil ETCs as well.


17. June 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). After months of high inflows into European stocks and outflows from US stocks, the situation is now less clear. “There is no clear trend,” reports Holger Heinrich, who trades ETFs for Baader Bank. Overall, he continues to see more purchases than sales in the ETF business. “But turnover is lower,” he adds. Ivo Orlemann from ICF Bank also reports quiet trading. “Defense ETFs remain popular,” he notes. Oil is currently a new topic. Due to the war that has broken out between Israel and Iran, the price of oil has risen significantly. Lang & Schwarz's trading-savvy clientele is therefore betting heavily on oil ETCs, often with leverage.

The DAX is currently being weighed down by the escalation in the Middle East and stood at 23,422 points on Tuesday afternoon, slightly below its all-time high of 24,453 points. US stocks, on the other hand, have recently recovered significantly, with the Nasdaq 100 approaching its record high reached in February.

“S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs traded on both sides”

Heinrich sees equally strong inflows and outflows for European equities. On the one hand, ETFs on many large indices are tending to be sold, such as the Stoxx Europe 600 (LU1574142243), the MSCI Europe and the MSCI EMU. “On the other hand, positions are being taken in the Euro Stoxx 50 (LU0136234068) and the MSCI EMU Small Cap (LU0671493277),” reports the trader.

Heinrich also reports purchases and sales for world ETFs. On the shopping list: the currency-hedged SPDR MSCI World (IE000BZ1HVL2) and the Frankfurt Modern Value (LU2439874319) from issuer Axxion. This focuses on companies from around the world with high quality, strong ownership structures, and competitive advantages, with all companies in the index equally weighted. According to the trader, there are sales in the actively managed JPM Global Research Enhanced Index Equity Active (IE000HFXP0D2). Heinrich also reports a mixed picture for US stocks, with purchases (IE00BD6RZT93) and sales (IE0000EAPBT6). Puschmann from Lang & Schwarz confirms this: “S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs are being traded on both sides.”

Continued caution regarding US stocks.

In May, most of the money on the European ETF market flowed into world (up €8.6 billion) and European stock ETFs (€4.7 billion), while US stocks received less attention, according to the analysis and trading firm Crossflow. However, after three months of minor redemptions, US equity ETFs received new funds for the first time ever in May, albeit at a very low level (€1.7 billion). “Compared to the enthusiastic inflow of €50 billion in the last quarter of 2024, this is of course strikingly low,” comments Crossflow. Since the beginning of the year, global equities have seen inflows of €40.5 billion, European equities €35.8 billion, and US equities only €8 billion. 

“Everything related to defense and nuclear energy is in demand”

Arms trackers continue to be the big sellers in the industry ETF market. According to Orlemann, the VanEck Defense (IE000YYE6WK5), WisdomTree Europe Defense (IE0002Y8CX98), and Global X Defense Tech (IE000JCW3DZ3) are particularly popular. Also popular is the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies (IE000M7V94E1), which focuses on companies in the uranium mining and nuclear energy infrastructure sectors. “Everything related to defense and nuclear energy is popular.”

Ivo Orlemann

Ivo Orlemann

Oil ETCs generate high turnover – leverage also popular

The price of oil has risen sharply due to the Israel-Iran war: a barrel of Brent currently costs US$74.30, up from US$62 at the end of May. Both countries are already targeting oil refineries and fields with their attacks. There is also great concern that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, which is so important for oil transport.

Puschmann reports brisk trading in oil ETCs, specifically the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil 3x Daily Leveraged (IE00BMTM6B32) and its short variant (XS2819844387), as well as the counterparts on Brent (IE00BMTM6D55, IE00BLRPRK35). Apart from that, gold price trackers also remained in demand, as both Puschmann and Orlemann note. “Platinum ETCs are also in demand,” adds Puschmann.

By Anna-Maria Borse, 17 June, 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG

Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.

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