Weekly outlook: “Everyone is waiting for Friday”

What will the Fed do in two weeks?

The labor market data could provide insight into whether and to what extent the Fed will make an adjustment at its next meeting on 17 September. Currently, the markets are pricing in a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points. “Depending on the data, interest rate speculation could increase,” explains Hartmann. The consensus currently expects around 80,000 new jobs. If the figure is significantly lower, pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates even further could increase. On the other hand, according to LBBW analyst Elmar Völker, there would have to be a job increase well above 100,000 to make the monetary authorities “seriously reconsider” whether they should ease their monetary policy at all.

“Consolidation at a high level” expected

According to Commerzbank, macroeconomic data from the US is likely to dominate market activity because “corporate announcements and quarterly figures are few and far between and are therefore unlikely to provide any new impetus.” Chip specialist Broadcom is among the companies reporting from the technology sector on Thursday. Analysts expect “consolidation at a high level” for the stock markets in the current week. The DAX closed at 23,902 points on Friday, suffering a weekly loss of 1.9 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 2.0 percent. In the US, the market-wide S&P 500 posted a moderate decline of 0.1 percent for the week. On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,940 points, slightly higher than on Friday.

Today marks the start of an “even more critical month in history”

All in all, the DAX lost 0.7 percent in value last month, confirming August's reputation as a relatively weak period, at least in terms of trends. According to LBBW, September is now set to be an “even more critical month in historical terms.” On average, the German stock index has lost around 2.1 percent here since 1988. The DAX has only managed to post gains in September in 15 of a total of 37 years. Last year, it did just that, after four years of negative monthly results.

Important economic and business data

Monday, 1 September

USA. Labor Day: Markets closed

Tuesday, 2 September

11:00 a.m. Eurozone. August consumer prices: Commerzbank analysts expect “nothing new” from the data. In their view, the inflation rate is likely to rise from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent, but the core inflation rate is expected to fall from 2.3 percent to 2.2 percent. However, this would “not change the fundamental picture that consumer prices are currently developing largely in line with the ECB's inflation target and therefore do not give rise to any change in key interest rates.”

4:00 p.m. USA. ISM Manufacturing Index: Deutsche Bank expects the index to have risen slightly from 48.0 points in July to 48.5 points in August.

Wednesday, 3 September

9:30 a.m. Eurozone. Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde

8:00 p.m. USA. Fed Beige Book

Germany: Index review. The regular review of the German stock exchange takes place four times a year, on the third working day in March, June, September, and December. The changes decided upon are published after the US stock market closes and take effect around three weeks later.

Thursday, 4 September

4:00 p.m. USA. ISM Services Index: Unlike the manufacturing index (see above), Deutsche Bank's US economists expect a slight decline in the index for the service sector from 50.1 points to 49.8 points.

Friday, 5 September

2:30 p.m. USA. Labor market report: most important publication of the week (see main text)

By Thomas Koch, 1 September 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG