Weekly outlook: “Financial markets depend on Trump”

On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 24,313 points. On Friday, the index had come close to its most recent all-time high of 24,639 points in early trading. At the close of trading, however, it was only just under 24,290 points again. The European index Stoxx Europe 600 also remains a little below its historic high of 564 points at currently 547 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices reached new record highs on Friday, but also closed slightly weaker. “The lack of significant economic damage from the higher import tariffs so far, a solid reporting season to date, a stable labor market and US consumers who are still keen to spend are supporting the high valuations of US equities,” explains Deutsche Bank. It is also betting that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates sooner or later.
 

“Recovery despite Trump actually a good sign”

According to Helaba analyst Claudia Windt, the start of the reporting season for the second quarter was positive. The recovery despite Trump is actually a good sign. “Ultimately, however, the financial markets will also depend on which issue Donald Trump turns his attention to next.” 
According to Burkhard Fehling from Commerzbank, the stock markets in Europe and the USA are likely to continue to trade at record levels for the most part in the new week. “Better-than-expected company results and macro data could lead to record highs again,” he explains. However, the upside potential is limited after the sometimes sharp rises since the beginning of April 2025 and valuation levels that are no longer favorable.
 

Technicals: “Consolidation the basis for the next push”

According to the chart technicians at DZ Bank, the DAX rose to a new high on 10 July, reaching the overbought area above the upper Bollinger band. The index could now consolidate, which in turn could form the basis for the next trend surge. In this scenario, the high of 18 July at 24,497 points would mark the first hurdle, the all-time high of 10 July at 24,647 points the second.

Lots of quarterly reports - and ECB meeting

There is no important economic data due for publication in the first few days of the new week, but things will look different from Thursday onwards. At the same time, the US reporting season continues, with figures from Coca-Cola, General Motors, Tesla, Alphabet and IBM, among others. In Germany, the reporting season picks up speed with figures from Sartorius, SAP, Deutsche Bank, MTU, Deutsche Börse and Volkswagen. 
No major surprises are expected from the ECB meeting on Thursday, the last before the summer break. “The latest statements from the Council representatives signal a wait-and-see attitude,” explains Christian Reicherter from DZ Bank. However, there are certainly differing views on how to proceed with monetary policy after the summer break. DZ Bank expects an easing step of 25 basis points after the summer break - the last one.
 

Important economic and business data

Tuesday, 22 July
2.30 pm. USA: Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Deutsche Bank, Powell will probably not comment on the tensions between him and US President Donald Trump. However, the bank is hoping for signals on the future development of key interest rates.

Thursday, 24 July
9.30 am. Germany: Purchasing Managers' Index July. DekaBank expects growth for Germany in both manufacturing and services.

10.00 am. Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Index July. In the eurozone, the combined purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing and services sectors is likely to remain flat in July, according to Commerzbank. The tariff threats by Donald Trump and the associated uncertainty would probably have dampened the mood, especially in industry, and thus prevented further improvement.

2.15 pm. Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. No interest rate hike is expected.

Friday, 25 July 
10.00 am. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index July. The improvement in sentiment continues, increasingly driven by the assessment of the current situation, says DekaBank. Expectations regarding future business activity are also likely to improve.
 

by: Anna-Maria Borse, 21 July 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG