While the DAX is constantly celebrating new records, the Scale segment is not really making progress. However, stocks such as Advanced Blockchain are benefiting from the crypto and tech boom. However, Cantourage is unable to maintain its high prices.
18. March 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). "Potential for revaluation of small caps", "Why small caps could soon take off" - more and more voices are predicting that small caps will catch up, such as Caroline Moleux from the investment company Axa IM or Patrick Suck from the asset manager Oddo BHF Polaris. But we are still not there yet. Small companies continue to be overshadowed by the big ones. They are struggling with high interest rates and are also less robust in economic downturns.
According to Nick Sheridan, Portfolio Manager at asset manager Janus Henderson Investors, the next few months will show whether the current aggressive interest rate cycle will lead to a deep recession and a "hard landing". Increased geopolitical risks, slower growth in China and weak purchasing managers' indices would argue in favor of this. However, there could also be a "soft landing" in which the central banks successfully curb inflation and the economies adjust to higher interest rates. "That would be a first-class basis for profit increases in the small-cap sector." He is convinced that a large part of the risk of a negative economic trend is already priced into small caps.
Upward trend interrupted
The Scale All Share has left the low from the end of October at 1,077 points behind. However, after rising to around 1,200 points in mid-February, the index is now only at 1,123 points again. The 2021 highs of over 1,900 points remain a long way off anyway.
However, things are still going really well for some Scale members: top performers on a twelve-month horizon are currently the film production company Pantaflix (DE000A12UPJ7), the blockchain company Advanced Blockchain (DE000A0M93V6), compliance specialist EQS (DE0005494165), POS system provider Vectron Systems (DE000A0KEXC7) and the Veganz Group (DE000A3E5ED2). The first two have more than doubled in price, the other three have gained between 55 and 90 percent.
Deutsche Rohstoff AG (DE000A0XYG76), financial services provider JDC Group (DE000A0B9N37), shipping company Ernst Russ AG (DE000A161077), drilling technology specialist Daldrup & Söhne (DE0007830572) and Hamburg-based media company Edel SE (DE0005649503) remain solid long-term performers with the best development over a three-year period.
Advanced Blockchain and Cyan - crypto and tech boom winners
Advanced Blockchain (DE000A0M93V6) is benefiting from the crypto boom and the sharp rise in the valuation of its portfolio. The share currently costs 5.50 euros, up to mid-December it was only 3 euros. Cybersecurity provider Cyan (DE000A2E4SV8) briefly experienced a steep rise. Cyan had already reported good figures for 2023 and a 71% increase in customers. Shortly afterwards, it was announced that telecom service provider Orange Spain will use Cyan solutions for the digital security of its more than 17 million mobile customers. The share price jumped from EUR 1.30 to EUR 2.50, but on Friday morning it was only EUR 1.78 again.
2G figures "significantly better than expected"
After a difficult year on the stock market, the preliminary figures from 2G Energy (DE000A0HL8N9) for 2023 were well received. The manufacturer of combined heat and power systems and producer of heat pumps continued its growth trajectory and increased its turnover by 17% to EUR 365 million. However, the share price then fell back to 22 euros, the level at the beginning of the year.
However, the share still has many supporters: "After a very successful 2023 and a significant increase in incoming orders in the second half of the year, we see our growth forecasts for 2024 confirmed," explains analyst firm First Berlin, for example, reiterating its buy recommendation with a target price of EUR 34 - well above the current price. SMC Research also advises buying into the stock, with a target price of EUR 33.40. The figures are "significantly better than expected". SMC analyst Holger Steffen expects the positive trend to continue.
The most traded Scale share on Xetra and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in February was Cliq Digital with a turnover of EUR 15.6 million, followed by Data Group (EUR 13 million), 2G Energy (EUR 10.4 million), Formycon (EUR 9 million) and Partec (EUR 8.5 million). These five shares have also had the highest turnover since the beginning of the year, but in a slightly different order: Cliq is followed by 2G, Formycon, Datagroup and Partec.
Cantourage: Cannabis legalization hardly helps
The strong gains in the share price of Cantourage (DE000A3DSV01), the provider of medical cannabis, were quickly pulverized again. The fact that the Bundestag passed the controlled release of cannabis in Germany on February 23 did not help the share price. The share price had previously climbed from 5.40 to almost 10 euros, but is now back down to 6.74 euros. For analysts Montega, the clarified legal situation and the simplified prescription of medical cannabis is nevertheless very good news. Cantourage is excellently positioned to benefit greatly from the new market conditions. The analysts expect continued strong sales and earnings momentum and recommend a buy with a price target of 10 euros.
Helma in insolvency
Things look very bad for Helma Eigenheimbau, on the other hand, as the last hopes are gone. The out-of-court restructuring failed and the provider of solid construction houses filed for insolvency on March 5. Shortly afterwards, two subsidiaries filed for insolvency. The already weakening share plummeted further and currently costs just 0.20 euros. At the beginning of 2022, it was almost 70 euros.
Analysis company/bank | Scale companies | Recommendations | Target price in euro | Current price in euros |
SMC-Research | The Naga Group | Speculative Buy | 1,40 | 1,01 |
SMC-Research | Beta Systems Software | Buy | 43,00 | 30,00 |
GBC | Vectron Systems | Buy | 10,00 | 7,18 |
NuWays | Nabaltec | Buy | 25,00 | 13,20 |
Montega | The Platform Group | Buy | 9,00 | 6,26 |
GBC | Media and Games Invest | Buy | 4,50 | 1,22 |
First Berlin | Media and Games Invest | Buy | 3,60 | 1,22 |
NuWays | Beaconsmind | Buy | 15,00 | 4,16 |
NuWays | Cliq Digital | Buy | 65,00 | 17,64 |
BankM | Datron | Buy | 16,76 | 9,10 |
Montega | Partec | Hold | 130,00 | 100,00 |
Von Anna-Maria Borse © 18. March 2024, Deutsche Börse AG
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in the financial market/stock exchange and economic topics.
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