Weekly outlook: “August and September are the weakest months”
The topics of the week are likely to be the Trump/Putin meeting and US monetary policy – also due to the Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole. The reporting season, on the other hand, is virtually over. Many are now pointing to the usually weak months of August and September.
18 August 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). It came as no great surprise that the Trump/Putin summit in Alaska ended without any results. “Much ado about nothing,” commented Dirk Chlench of LBBW. Today, Ukrainian President Zelensky, representatives of European countries, and US President Trump are meeting for further talks. “Certainly, not too many market participants expected any really tangible results from the Putin/Trump meeting,” explains chart technician Christoph Geyer. “However, no results are likely to give the stock market a sustained upward boost,” he emphasizes.
On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 24,350 points after closing at 24,359 on Friday. The record high of 24,639 points set in July thus remains within reach. The Stoxx Europe 600 is also not far from new highs. In the US, the S&P 500 and even the long-lagging Dow Jones reached new all-time highs on Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 doing so last Wednesday.
“Investors simply refuse to let anything dampen their spirits,” notes Claudia Windt of Helaba, referring to a “certain summer lightness” on the stock markets. “However, this optimism could prove to be deceptive,” she says. A quick solution in Ukraine and only moderate consequences of the protectionist US trade policy are unlikely. “The latest data on US producer prices show that it is only a matter of time before companies pass these price increases on to consumers.”
Tailwind from reporting season subsides
Martin Hartmann from Commerzbank points to the slowly winding down reporting season. All 40 DAX companies have already presented their quarterly figures, with only second- and third-tier companies such as Baywa and CTS Eventim still to report this week. “The tailwind from this side will subside,” explains Hartmann.
The results of DAX companies for the second quarter were 66 percent above expectations, as Windt's colleague Markus Reinwand notes. In the S&P 500, as many as 81 percent of companies surprised on the upside. “While earnings estimates for the highly valued S&P 500 are now being revised upward, negative earnings revisions still predominate for DAX stocks,” he explains. There are currently no signs of an acceleration in earnings momentum above expectations.
Markus Reinwand
Stocks were primarily supported by the expansionary course of the central banks. However, given record-high valuations, particularly for US stocks, this process has largely run its course. Reinwand also points to seasonality: “For both the DAX and the S&P 500, August and September have proven to be the weakest months of the year on a long-term average (since 1965),” he explains.
“The most difficult phase of the year”
According to Geyer, the most difficult phase of the year has begun. According to statistics, this phase lasts until the beginning of October. “Only 26 out of 65 years ended with a profit during this period,” he notes. Without external momentum, with seasonal expectations and indicators pointing to sell signals, the DAX will find it very difficult to break out of its downward trend.
Christoph Geyer
Important economic and business data
Wednesday, 20 August
8 p.m. USA: Minutes of the last Fed meeting. According to Helaba, the minutes of the meeting will be of interest because, as is well known, the last meeting ended with two votes in favor of a key interest rate cut.
Thursday, 21 August
USA: Central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (until Saturday). Among others, Fed Chair Powell will give a speech, as will ECB President Lagarde. “Jackson Hole has caused significant stock market volatility on several occasions in the past, such as in 2022, when Powell spoke out in favor of consistently combating inflation, even at the expense of the economy,” explains Deutsche Bank. As a result, the leading US indices recorded daily losses of 3 percent and more.
10:00 a.m. Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Index for August. The combined purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing and service sectors could fall slightly in August, according to Commerzbank. This is because the purchasing managers' indices have risen faster than other leading indicators in recent months and, in some cases, have improved faster than actual economic development.
By Anna-Maria Borse, 18 August 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.
Feedback and questions to redaktion@deutsche-boerse.com
Deutsche Börse 
