Commodities: The gold euphoria continues
In commodities trading, everything continues to revolve around gold. While investors are mostly betting on prices continuing to rise, the first voices are warning that the highs may come to an end, at least temporarily.
8. May 2025 FRANKFURT ( Börse Frankfurt). In terms of global net flows into commodity ETPs, the precious metal has also stood out in recent weeks. “The continued inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded products underline the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven in an uncertain environment,” explains Mobeen Tahir from WisdomTree. In his view, the uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, economic policy and global geopolitical risks is primarily responsible for the strong demand for the fine ounce. He describes Donald Trump's interim threat to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as an “unprecedented move that has shaken investor confidence”.
New record highs
According to the strategists at HSBC, this is precisely what led to gold being bought as a supposedly safe alternative to the less sought-after US government bonds. Concerns about rising inflation rates due to tariffs and the devaluation of the US dollar have also driven the gold rally. According to the World Gold Council, the weaker US dollar was “one of the decisive factors” for the rise in the price of gold. The precious metal peaked at 3,500 points in April. A troy ounce currently costs around 3,320 dollars. Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) is trading at just over 95 euros, only slightly below this week's new record high of 97.32 euros.
The enormous interest shown by investors is also reflected in the fact that gold was the second most traded underlying at Société Générale in the past four weeks after the DAX. Above all, a Best Unlimited Turbo warrant on gold (DE000SX2S3L7), which has more than quintupled in value over the month thanks to its high leverage, was very actively traded. However, Patrick Kesselhut also mentions a somewhat less highly leveraged (currently a good six times) Best Unlimited Turbo warrant, where investors were able to achieve a gain of 175% in the period mentioned (DE000SJ4S4S7).
Silver is also in demand
At Bank Vontobel, gold products are also the clear sales leader in the commodities segment. According to David Hartmann, the number one product in April was a mini long future on gold (DE000VG78FK2), which is currently leveraged a good seven times. However, the top three also include a product on the silver price, which has not yet been able to set any new record highs. The frequently traded discount warrant will be redeemed at USD 2.50 at the end of June if silver trades at least at USD 35 on the valuation date ( 20. June 2025). At prices of 32.50 dollars or below, the warrant will expire worthless on that day. Silver is currently trading at around 32 dollars, the bill costs a good 0.70 euros (DE000VD2BZM5).
Has gold risen too quickly?
Back to gold: despite all the euphoria (JP Morgan expects the price of gold to exceed USD 4,000 in a year's time), there are also an increasing number of cautionary voices. The commodity strategists at LBBW only expect prices of USD 3,000 by the end of the year. The reasons cited by the analysts include the continuing increase in gold supply from mines and recycling as well as the already very high net long position of speculators with a volume of around USD 40 billion. Despite the intact upward trend and new all-time highs, it is not all sunshine and roses from a technical perspective either. Jörg Scherer from HSBC points out that the gap between the gold price and its 200-week line is almost 60 percent.
“Only at the time of the highs in 2006, 2008 and 2011 had the gold price moved further away from the long-term average,” warns the technical analyst. “Against this backdrop, investors can realize some of the price gains to date or tighten the stop loss for existing exposures.” Initial support is therefore at 3,168 dollars (high on 3. April) and at 3,087 dollars in the form of the average of the last 50 days.
By Thomas Koch, 8 May 2025, © Deutsche Börse
About the author
Thomas Koch is a CEFA investment analyst, investment specialist for structured products and a certified certificate consultant. He has been a freelance journalist covering events on the capital markets since the beginning of 2006.
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