Weekly outlook: “Surfing on a wave of risk appetite”

On Friday, US President Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska to negotiate a solution to the war in Ukraine. Many are hoping for an agreement. At the same time, there is great concern that a solution could be at the expense of Ukraine. Another highlight of the new week: the July inflation data from the US, which will be published tomorrow, Tuesday. It is expected to provide signals for the further development of US key interest rates. 

Quarterly figures: Positive profit surprises, negative outlooks

Meanwhile, the reporting season is drawing to a close. The last companies are presenting their figures for the second quarter, including Hannover Rück, Eon, and RWE. According to an analysis by LBBW, 47 percent of DAX companies have reported positive profit surprises in the current reporting season. “The flip side of the coin, however, is that 38 percent of companies have lowered their outlook,” adds LBBW analyst Berndt Fernow. 

“US tech companies and banks have the advantage”

Weber Bank remains confident about the stock market's performance. “We are now entering the statistically weaker summer months for the stock market. However, the medium-term outlook is better than one would expect given the political backdrop of tariff threats,” explains portfolio manager Jens Herdack. However, European companies are not only burdened by tariffs, but also by the strong euro. “Profit growth is therefore rather sluggish here,” he notes. He recommends a selective approach and advises against companies that would be most affected by tariffs and exchange rates. “We see US technology companies and European banks at an advantage here,” he adds.

DAX outlook: “Positive in the long term, short-term momentum needed”

DekaBank also believes that the outlook for the DAX is positive in the long term. In the short term, however, strong momentum is needed for the DAX to break out of its sideways movement, as Joachim Schallmayer explains. The reporting season in Germany has been mixed. The cyclical consumer sector, i.e., the major car and clothing manufacturers, once again delivered negative results. Tariffs and the strength of the euro had a particularly strong negative impact here. “But while DAX gains fell by around 8 percent in the second quarter, they rose by a pleasing 7 percent excluding cyclical consumption,” Schallmayer notes. In terms of earnings development and performance, the financial sector has recently been a key pillar of support, especially banks. Schallmeyer sees the DAX at 26,000 points in twelve months. 

DAX outlook: “Positive in the long term, short-term momentum needed”

DekaBank also believes that the outlook for the DAX is positive in the long term. In the short term, however, strong momentum is needed for the DAX to break out of its sideways movement, as Joachim Schallmayer explains. The reporting season in Germany has been mixed. The cyclical consumer sector, i.e., the major car and clothing manufacturers, once again delivered negative results. Tariffs and the strength of the euro had a particularly strong negative impact here. “But while DAX gains fell by around 8 percent in the second quarter, they rose by a pleasing 7 percent excluding cyclical consumption,” Schallmayer notes. In terms of earnings development and performance, the financial sector has recently been a key pillar of support, especially banks. Schallmeyer sees the DAX at 26,000 points in twelve months. 

Important economic and business data

Monday, 11 August

Japan: Feiertag. Börse bleibt geschlossen.

Tuesday, 12 August

11:00 a.m. Germany: ZEW Economic Expectations for August. According to DekaBank, it is now becoming clearer that the EU's tariff deal with the US represents a significant deterioration. This is likely to be reflected in the decline in ZEW economic expectations for Germany in August.

2:30 p.m. US: Consumer prices for July. Commerzbank believes that the effects of tariffs are likely to have increased somewhat. It therefore expects a core inflation rate of 0.3 percent compared to the previous month, following 0.2 percent in June. Overall, however, consumer prices in July are likely to have risen by only 0.2 percent compared to the previous month, as gasoline prices have fallen.

Thursday, 14 August

8.00 a.m. United Kingdom: GDP for the second quarter. Following strong growth, partly due to US imports brought forward as a result of tariffs, DekaBank expects a significant slowdown in the second quarter.

Friday, 15 August

Treffen US-Präsident Trump und Russlands Präsident Putin

4:00 a.m. China: Industrial production/retail sales for July. In line with weaker leading indicators, Deutsche Bank believes that the domestic economy is likely to have weakened in July. The market expects industrial production to decline from an annual growth rate of 6.8 percent to 6 percent, and retail sales from 4.8 percent to 4.6 percent. 

By Anna-Maria Borse, 11 August 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG