In two days, the (stock market) world could look very different again—because that's when the deadline for tariff negotiations with the US expires. Nevertheless, many analysts recommend getting in now. Economic data is unlikely to be released this week.
7 July 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Customs policy is once again the number one topic. Wednesday marks the end of the 90-day period that US President Trump had set for negotiations to prevent “reciprocal” tariffs. He has already announced that various countries would be informed of the planned tariff increases in the days leading up to this date.
“The markets seem to have abandoned the worst-case scenario and assume that the economy will ultimately weather Trump's customs policy without a crisis,” explains Commerzbank analyst Bernd Weidensteiner, referring to the price development to date. He considers this to be possibly too optimistic. After all, “the really tough nuts” are still to come in the negotiations, and Trump could resort to the “tariff hammer” again. “Politically, he may also have an interest in reigniting the tariff conflict to distract from possible failures in other policy areas.”
On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,750 points. On Friday, the index closed at 23,787 points, while the Stoxx Europe 600 closed at 541 points. The US stock exchanges were closed on Friday (Independence Day).
“Take advantage of major price losses for acquisitions”
According to Robert Halver of Baader Bank, the stock markets have been rather carefree so far, but the “trade cow” is not out of the woods yet. “Even if the world does not become a globalization diaspora, in the end, the tariff level on US imports will be at least three times higher than before Trump took office,” he notes. Price setbacks are possible. “Nevertheless, investors will stick to their assessment that Trump's tariffs will not cause any major damage. Greater price losses should therefore be used for additional purchases.”
Robert Halver
“Outlook for German equities positive”
According to Ulrich Kater of DekaBank, German equities performed “excellently” in the first half of the year, gaining almost 20 percent in value – especially considering the numerous geopolitical turbulences and the trade conflict with the US. However, he notes that there has been “only” a sideways movement in the past month and a half, while US stocks – at least in US dollars – have continued to rise. He points to the upcoming reporting season for the second quarter, which will begin in mid/late July. “In the medium and long term, the outlook for German stocks remains positive, so investors should consistently buy during periods of weakness.”
Ulrich Kater
Chart analysis: “Don't rest on your laurels”
According to chart analyst Christoph Geyer, the DAX has successfully tested the support zone but has not reached its previous record high again. Instead, it is now treading water. “Even though this is happening above the support zone, we mustn't rest on our laurels,” he notes. The upcoming seasonal phase is not particularly promising, and the current stagnation is a sign of waiting rather than investing. Against the backdrop of the upcoming seasonality, Geyer considers such a wait-and-see approach to be unlikely to succeed and advises stock picking and the liquidation of individual risk positions.
Christoph Geyer
Important economic and business data
Monday, 7 July
8:00 a.m. Germany: Industrial production in May.
Tuesday, 8 July
8:00 a.m. Germany: Exports in May. Helaba expects a decline of 1.5 percent compared to April.
Wednesday, 9 July
“Tariff deadline.” Deadline for negotiations between the US and other countries on “reciprocal” tariffs ends.
8:00 p.m. US: Minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on June 17-18.
by: Anna-Maria Borse, 7 July 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.
Feedback and questions to redaktion@deutsche-boerse.com