Weekly outlook: “Keeping a close eye on the Middle East”
The US attack on Iran is causing caution on the stock markets. However, there have been no major setbacks so far. Only the oil price is reacting strongly. Trading in shares of auto parts retailer AUTODOC is scheduled to begin on Wednesday.
23 June 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The Middle East conflict continues to have a firm grip on the markets, especially after the US intervened militarily over the weekend. “The fortunes of the financial markets depend on the flow of news,” explains Helaba analyst Ralf Umlauf. “History will show whether the US's entry into the conflict has made the world safer or more unsafe,” comments analyst Andreas da Graça from LBBW. Now everything depends on Iran's response and the possible US counter-reaction. “Investors are therefore likely to keep a close eye on the Middle East this week.”
The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is primarily affecting the price of oil, while the stock markets are reacting quite calmly. “From a purely financial market perspective, it was probably beneficial that market players had a whole day to think about the situation,” notes Ulrich Stephan of Deutsche Bank. As a result, there were no panic reactions. “Market participants currently seem to believe that the conflict will remain regionally limited.”
Limited losses
On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,210 points after closing at 23,350 on Friday – well below the all-time high of 24,479 points reached at the beginning of June. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude had risen to over US$81, its highest level since January. It is currently slightly lower at US$78.28. The background to this is concern that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, an extremely important sea route for oil and liquefied gas.
“Carelessness makes people skeptical”
The price of gold – traditionally a “safe haven” – remains below its all-time high of just under US$3,500 at US$3,355 per troy ounce, as does Bitcoin, which is currently trading at just under US$102,000. “The biggest impact so far has been on the energy markets,” explains portfolio manager Max Hanisch of Weber Bank. However, this channel is transporting the consequences of the conflict beyond the directly affected regions and into the rest of the world in the form of higher prices for gasoline and kerosene and thus rising inflation. “In view of the manifold – predominantly negative – consequences of the threatened tariffs and the many other sources of danger in the world, the carefree attitude on the markets is making us increasingly skeptical.”
“Negative surprises from US customs policy at any time”
Regardless of current events, fund management company DWS expects global equities to generate total returns of around six percent over the next twelve months. However, due to high price gains, German equities are now significantly higher valued than most other European stock markets. “We expect moderate DAX price potential until June 2026: 25,600 points,” explains fund manager Tobias Rommel. The outlook for the US has improved somewhat. “However, this could change very quickly in the event of further negative surprises from US tariff policy,” notes Rommel. The development of the tech sector remains crucial. He sees the S&P 500 at 6,100 points by June 2026.
AUTODOC SE begins trading
AUTODOC, a Berlin-based operator of a platform for car parts, will be listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Prior to this, the shares will be privately placed with a subscription range between €58 and €61. If the offer is fully utilized, including over-allotment, this could result in a market capitalization of up to 2.4 billion euros. The free float will then be 19 percent.
Important economic and business data
Monday, 23 June
10:00 a.m. Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Index for June.
Tuesday, 24 June
10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for June. Commerzbank expects the ifo Business Climate Index to have risen again in June, from 87.5 to 88 points, following five consecutive increases. This comparatively small increase will once again reinforce the signal of a turnaround. However, it will also show that no strong upturn is to be expected due to higher US tariffs and the numerous structural problems facing the German economy.
Thursday, 26 June
2:30 p.m. USA: May durable goods orders. According to DekaBank, civil aircraft construction is driving orders. It expects an increase of 8.5 percent compared to April.
Friday, 27 June
2:30 p.m. US: Consumer price index excluding food and energy for May. According to Commerzbank, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation will show a slightly stronger increase compared to the previous year.
by: Anna-Maria Borse, 23 June, 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the author
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.
Feedback and questions to redaktion@deutsche-boerse.com
Deutsche Börse 
