30/06/25 09:36:00

Weekly outlook: New week, new high?

Following the new records set on Wall Street on Friday, many now see good chances for the DAX to reach a new high. If the geopolitical situation continues to ease, economic figures are likely to come back into focus.


30 June 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Calm in the Middle East, hopes of interest rate cuts in the US, signs of easing in the trade war – all of this is lifting the mood on the stock markets. “On the capital markets, the ‘geopolitical détente’ put investors in a celebratory mood, causing them to switch to risk-on mode just as quickly as they had previously switched to risk-off mode,” notes Helaba analyst Claudia Windt.

“The stock markets – especially Wall Street – have shaken off geopolitical concerns at breathtaking speed and regained their old momentum, driven largely by AI euphoria,” explains Thorsten Weinelt of Commerzbank, also with an eye on Nvidia's new all-time high. If hopes for interest rate cuts and an improvement in business sentiment were to be added to the mix, the path to previous highs would also be clear in this country. “Provided, of course, that there is no new escalation in the Middle East,” he adds.

“S&P Plus pales in comparison to the DAX”

The positive mood is also helped by the fact that the US and China have agreed to end certain trade restrictions. There is also hope for an early resolution to the US trade conflict with the European Union.

On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 24,108 points, up from 24,033 at the close of trading on Friday. The record high of 24,479 points set at the beginning of June is getting closer and closer. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 already set new records on Friday. “The S&P 500 has thus completely offset the price decline since the start of Trump's tariff offensive in February,” explains analyst Berndt Fernow of LBBW. However, the approximately five percent gain since the beginning of the year is “paltry” compared to the approximately 20 percent growth of the DAX.

“US economic figures have disappointed”

Ulrich Kater of DekaBank also speaks of a “wave of relief” caused by the ceasefire. However, many market participants had probably expected a rapid de-escalation early on. This is because price reactions on the stock and crude oil markets remained moderate during the attacks. According to Kater, economic data is now back in focus. In the US, a series of economic figures have recently disappointed. “This cautiously confirms expectations of a slowdown in the US economy due to the burdens of the Trump administration's economic program,” he explains.

Ulrich Kater 

Meeting in Sintra

Today, Monday, marks the start of the central bank meeting in Sintra, Portugal. “Market participants are hoping for new insights into monetary policy,” explains Fernow. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in the evening. Another highlight of this week: the latest US labor market data, which will be released on Thursday instead of Friday due to the US holiday.

IPO on Thursday: Brainlab AG

On Thursday, July 3, 2025, Munich-based Brainlab AG is expected to make its debut on the Prime Standard of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The subscription period runs until tomorrow, with shares priced between €80 and €100 per share, corresponding to a valuation of between €1.67 and €2.09 billion. Brainlab plans to issue up to 5.2 million shares, including around 2 million new shares. The IPO ceremony will be broadcast live on youtube.com/boersefrankfurt.

Important economic and financial data

Monday, 30 June

Central bank meeting in Sintra. Start of the annual central bank meeting in Sintra, Portugal (until 2 July). 

2:00 p.m. Germany: Consumer prices for June. Inflation in Germany is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1 percent, just above the ECB's target of 2 percent. 

Tuesday, 1 July

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: Consumer prices for June. Inflation in the eurozone is likely to have risen to 2.1 percent in June, according to DekaBank, partly due to energy prices. It expects the core rate to rise slightly to 2.4 percent, partly due to price increases for tourism services. 

Wednesday, 2 July

11:00 a.m. Eurozone: May unemployment figures. According to DekaBank, the unemployment rate in May was likely to remain at an all-time low.

Thursday, 3 July

2:30 p.m. USA: June unemployment figures. According to Commerzbank, the situation on the US labor market probably deteriorated slightly again in June. After an increase in employment of 139,000 in May, it expects only 110,000 new jobs for June. The unemployment rate is likely to rise to 4.3 percent.

Friday, 4 July

USA: Independence Day. The stock markets will remain closed. 

8:00 a.m. Germany: May order intake. Commerzbank expects the core figure to have risen again compared to the previous month. It sees the expected 1 percent increase in the total figure and the core figure compared to the previous month as a good sign for the German economy in the coming months.

by: Anna-Maria Borse, 30 June 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG

Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in financial markets/stock exchanges and economic issues.

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