Market sentiment: “Fall quickly absorbed”

15 October, 2025. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). A lot has happened in global politics since our last sentiment survey, and stock market traders in this country have also had to endure a rollercoaster ride of emotions since then. Since last Wednesday, the DAX had risen by 1.4 percent at times, including a new all-time high, before US President Donald Trump once again threatened new tariffs: there was talk of 100 percent on Chinese imports. As a result, the stock market barometer lost up to 3.2 percent in value, and it was almost fortunate that all this happened on a Friday and the DAX was able to save itself, so to speak, with the break bell ringing, or rather, with the weekend. By the following Monday, the world looked different again when Trump relativized his tariff threat. As a result, the DAX is currently showing a loss of only 0.5 percent compared to the previous week.

The bears are back

This rather hectic price development has also left its mark on the sentiment of the institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon whom we surveyed. Our Frankfurt Stock Exchange Sentiment Index fell by 11 points compared to the previous week to a new level of +19. As was already the case last Wednesday, the biggest shifts occurred between neutral and bearish investors. The former group was unable to maintain the gains made in the previous week. Instead, 90 percent of new entrants ended up moving back into the bear camp, which grew by 10 percentage points. In other words, the bears from two weeks ago are back. There was little movement among the bulls and only minor profit-taking. In the best-case scenario, the previously neutral players have moved to the short side near the new all-time high, but have not yet realized any potential gains.

Among private investors, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Sentiment Index fell by 4 points to a new level of +19. However, this change masks a rather contrasting development between those we survey via social media and other investors. While the bullish sentiment among social media participants declined significantly—7 percent of all respondents in this subgroup switched directly from bullish to bearish—there was very little movement among other private investors. Only the polarization between bulls and bears decreased slightly.
 

No consensus

While institutional investors and private investors appear to be in agreement on the surface, there is still a significant difference in sentiment between private investors who were not surveyed via social media (sub-index level +12) and their institutional counterparts. In recent months, we have often seen parallel sentiment trends between these two groups; today's difference is likely related to their respective purchase prices.

In terms of sentiment, the DAX is now in a similar position to two weeks ago, although the recent somewhat burdensome optimism has now been curbed again. However, the new bearish positions taken by institutional investors did not ultimately cause the DAX to come under significant pressure on balance. This may also be because, according to the latest Bank of America survey of international fund managers, there has recently been a slight increase in interest in eurozone equities. After all, the proportion of those who are overweight in this region has risen by three percentage points net compared to the September survey.

Meanwhile, the sentiment situation for the DAX has improved again, especially as we expect profit-taking by the new bears and thus demand in the 23,850/900 DAX range.
 

by Joachim Goldberg

15 October, 2025, © Goldberg & Goldberg for boerse-frankfurt.de

The Frankfurt Stock Exchange Sentiment Index ranges between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), with the transition from positive to negative values marking the neutral line. 

• Previous analyses
• Explanations of the method