Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

17.10.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name: MHP Hotel AG

ISIN: DE000A3E5C24

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 17.10.2025

Target price: EUR 3.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Solid Q3; Conrad ramp-up sets stage for strong year-end

MHP delivered a solid Q3 performance, demonstrating the resilience of its

premium positioning despite an exceptionally strong prior-year base marked

by major one-off events such as the UEFA Euro and large concert series.

Occupancy came in at 81% vs. 82% in Q3'24, while ADR slightly declined to EUR

228 (Q3'24: EUR 229), resulting in a RevPar of EUR 185 (Q3'24: EUR 189). Given

last year's unusually high demand levels, the near-stability in ADR and only

marginal dip in occupancy clearly underline MHP's sustained pricing power

and strong demand fundamentals across its portfolio. Including the newly

opened Conrad Hamburg, occupancy stood at 79% with an ADR of EUR 227 and

RevPar of EUR 179, indicating that the new asset is already tracking close to

group metrics despite being in its initial ramp-up phase.

On the revenue side, total hotel sales increased by 2% yoy to EUR 45.2m. While

Logis revenue was slightly down by 1% due to timing effects as well as the

mentioned tough comparable base, F&B once again outperformed with +11% yoy

to EUR 8.8m, reflecting the continued success of MHP's high-margin culinary

concepts. The opening of the 283-room Conrad Hamburg in early September

marks a strategic milestone, adding more than 10% capacity at group level

and strengthening MHP's footprint in the luxury segment. Early trading

feedback appears promising and, together with the ongoing ramp-up of the

Koenigshof in Munich, should drive operating leverage into the seasonally

stronger H2.

On this basis, management confirmed the FY25 guidance of EUR 180m sales and EUR

15m EBITDA, which we view as well within reach. Based on the strong H1 and

stable Q3 metrics, the implied H2 growth and margin profile (c. 11% sales

growth and low-to-mid-teens EBITDA margin) appear realistic. Beyond

operational momentum, MHP remains well positioned for portfolio expansion.

Following the EUR 4.5m capital increase in July and access to additional

credit lines, the company holds a "war chest" of more than EUR 10m. With peers

in the economy and mid-scale segment still facing pressure, attractive

takeover opportunities in prime locations persist. As our model does not

include any portfolio additions beyond the Stuttgart project (opening 2028),

any additional new opening would provide upside to our estimates. In

addition, the company may further roll out its high-margin lifestyle brand

MOOONS.

Overall, Q3 confirms the structural strength of MHP's business model: high

occupancy, sustained pricing power even against tough comps, growing F&B,

and a new luxury flagship coming online ahead of a strong seasonal phase. We

therefore reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 3.00 based on

DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=2f49a7d22cf36c3ccfa881297129c81b

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2214626 17.10.2025 CET/CEST

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